PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 22%Sinker 14%Cutter 11%Sweeper 10%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.