PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .259vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 22%Sinker 14%Cutter 12%Sweeper 10%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .362
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-13 game page →