PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .259vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Changeup 23%Sinker 14%Cutter 12%Sweeper 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .402
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.