PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .270vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 23%Sinker 15%Cutter 13%Sweeper 8%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .394
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .421 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-18 game page →