PITCHER MATCHUP

Tomoyuki Sugano vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tomoyuki Sugano's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tomoyuki Sugano's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .403vs RHH xwOBA .347Seasons 2026–2025
Splitter 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Sweeper 15%Cutter 12%Curveball 8%Slider 5%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tomoyuki Sugano, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JB JJ Bleday LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-18 game page →