PITCHER MATCHUP

Tomoyuki Sugano vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tomoyuki Sugano's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tomoyuki Sugano's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .393vs RHH xwOBA .354Seasons 2026–2025
Splitter 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Sweeper 14%Cutter 12%Curveball 9%Slider 6%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tomoyuki Sugano, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 598 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EA Edwin Arroyo SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edwin Arroyo
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.