PITCHER MATCHUP

Tomoyuki Sugano vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tomoyuki Sugano's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tomoyuki Sugano's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .400vs RHH xwOBA .350Seasons 2026–2025
Splitter 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Sweeper 15%Cutter 12%Curveball 8%Slider 6%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tomoyuki Sugano, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 516 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 JG Jacob Gonzalez LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Gonzalez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.