PITCHER MATCHUP

Tomoyuki Sugano vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tomoyuki Sugano's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tomoyuki Sugano's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .388vs RHH xwOBA .353Seasons 2026–2025
Splitter 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Sweeper 14%Cutter 12%Curveball 9%Slider 6%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tomoyuki Sugano, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LC Luis Campusano RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-14 game page →