PITCHER MATCHUP

Tomoyuki Sugano vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tomoyuki Sugano's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tomoyuki Sugano's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .397vs RHH xwOBA .350Seasons 2026–2025
Splitter 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Sweeper 15%Cutter 12%Curveball 8%Slider 6%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tomoyuki Sugano, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 LJ Leo Jiménez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Jiménez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.