PITCHER MATCHUP

Tomoyuki Sugano vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tomoyuki Sugano's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tomoyuki Sugano's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .403vs RHH xwOBA .347Seasons 2026–2025
Splitter 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Sweeper 15%Cutter 12%Curveball 8%Slider 5%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tomoyuki Sugano, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 OC Owen Caissie LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GP Graham Pauley LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Graham Pauley
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-01 game page →