PITCHER MATCHUP

Tomoyuki Sugano vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tomoyuki Sugano's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tomoyuki Sugano's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .387vs RHH xwOBA .352Seasons 2026–2025
Splitter 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Sweeper 14%Cutter 12%Curveball 9%Slider 6%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tomoyuki Sugano, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 636 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-20 game page →