PITCHER MATCHUP

Tomoyuki Sugano vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tomoyuki Sugano's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tomoyuki Sugano's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .382vs RHH xwOBA .351Seasons 2026–2025
Splitter 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Sweeper 14%Cutter 12%Curveball 9%Slider 6%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tomoyuki Sugano, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CE Colt Emerson LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LR Leo Rivas SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Rivas
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.