PITCHER MATCHUP

Shota Imanaga vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shota Imanaga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shota Imanaga's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .287vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Splitter 32%Sweeper 14%Sinker 4%Curveball 2%Changeup 1%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shota Imanaga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 553 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JB JJ Bleday LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TF TJ Friedl LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →