PITCHER MATCHUP

Shota Imanaga vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shota Imanaga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shota Imanaga's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .309Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Splitter 32%Sweeper 14%Sinker 4%Curveball 3%Slider 1%Changeup 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shota Imanaga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .446 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-25 game page →