PITCHER MATCHUP

Shota Imanaga vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shota Imanaga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shota Imanaga's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .304vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 33%Sweeper 15%Sinker 4%Curveball 3%Slider 1%Changeup 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shota Imanaga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.