PITCHER MATCHUP

Shota Imanaga vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shota Imanaga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shota Imanaga's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 33%Sweeper 15%Sinker 4%Curveball 3%Slider 1%Changeup 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shota Imanaga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.