PITCHER MATCHUP
Shota Imanaga vs San Diego Padres
How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shota Imanaga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Shota Imanaga's arsenal
Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .290vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Splitter 32%Sweeper 15%Sinker 4%Curveball 3%Slider 1%Changeup 1%
How the San Diego Padres's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shota Imanaga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .315
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1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .331
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (32% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 MM Manny Machado RHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (32% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (32% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 TF Ty France RHB .299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .293
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (32% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.