PITCHER MATCHUP

Shota Imanaga vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shota Imanaga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shota Imanaga's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Splitter 32%Sweeper 14%Sinker 4%Curveball 3%Changeup 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shota Imanaga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-29 game page →