PITCHER MATCHUP

Shota Imanaga vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shota Imanaga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shota Imanaga's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Splitter 32%Sweeper 14%Sinker 4%Curveball 3%Changeup 1%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shota Imanaga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JF José Fermín RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-04 game page →