PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Drohan vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Drohan's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Drohan's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Slider 20%Sinker 19%Cutter 13%Curveball 13%Changeup 5%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Drohan, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MM Matt McLain RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JB JJ Bleday LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BD Blake Dunn RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blake Dunn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DM Dane Myers RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-24 game page →