PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Sinker 4%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Austin Martin RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-12 game page →