PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Sinker 4%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 RG Riley Greene LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-27 game page →