PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Sinker 3%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SP Salvador Perez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LT Lane Thomas RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SM Starling Marte RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-12 game page →