PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Sinker 4%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 590 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.