PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .299vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 627 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CW Connor Wong RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TS Trevor Story RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-04 game page →