PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 30%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.