PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 30%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .266
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.