PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .297vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 4%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .268
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-23 game page →