PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Sinker 4%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 AB Alec Bohm RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BH Bryce Harper LHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .428 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JC Justin Crawford LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ES Edmundo Sosa RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edmundo Sosa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-01 game page →