PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 30%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 2%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 719 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 621 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .432 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.