PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .313vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Slider 3%Sinker 3%Unknown 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RD Rodolfo Durán RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rodolfo Durán
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.