PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Sinker 4%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.