PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 30%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.