PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .304vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LC Luis Campusano RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.