PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 30%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 2%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .331
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 638 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .387
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .441 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (30% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.