PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .304vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 3%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .331
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 611 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .389
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .444 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-15 game page →