PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .304vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 3%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 576 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 630 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.