PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Sinker 4%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 578 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 LR Luke Raley LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CE Colt Emerson LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.