PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .313vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Slider 3%Sinker 3%Unknown 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LR Luke Raley LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MG Mitch Garver RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CE Colt Emerson LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-18 game page →