PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .297vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 4%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 565 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.