PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .305vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Sinker 3%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-07 game page →