PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 15%Changeup 10%Sinker 4%Slider 3%Unknown 1%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 602 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 492 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-26 game page →