PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Baz vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Baz's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Baz's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .307vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Knuckle Curve 29%Cutter 14%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%Slider 3%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Baz, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-21 game page →