PITCHER MATCHUP

Sean Manaea vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sean Manaea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sean Manaea's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .296vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Sweeper 29%Sinker 17%Changeup 6%Cutter 6%Slider 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sean Manaea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ER Endy Rodríguez SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Endy Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-09 game page →