RunsLeft › Pitchers › Sean Manaea
Pitcher · New York Mets

Sean Manaea

LHP · Throws Left · Age 34Swingman
Model projection · strikeout prop
43.8%
43.8% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. KC. Confidence low.
ERA
4.76
FIP
–
IP
68.0
W-L
1-4
WHIP
1.35
K%
22.4
BB%
7.6
GB%
–
K/9
9.0
HR/9
1.1
Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in 2013 (round CB-A), he was signed by the New York Mets in free agency in December 2024. He made his MLB debut on April 29, 2016.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Royals · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Royals current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .317

  1. 1 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 SP Salvador Perez RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 LT Lane Thomas RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SM Starling Marte RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

42% of pitches · .314 xwOBA allowed · 490 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
1%2%4%4%4%2%5%10%12%7%5%11%14%9%5%1%1%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.689.512.084.185.345.212.193.202.284.203.386.244.444.436.315.691.000.227.069––.689.962.674–
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.006.010.003.008.014.004.010.020.034.015.020.026.061.041.015.006.000.002.000––.002.007.003–
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) has allowed .314 xwOBA over 490 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 5,383-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
42% usage · 20% whiff · .314 xwOBA · 90.4 mph
Sweeper ST
29% usage · 32% whiff · .263 xwOBA · 75.2 mph
Sinker SI
15% usage · 11% whiff · .354 xwOBA · 90.0 mph
Changeup CH
7% usage · 23% whiff · .355 xwOBA · 83.1 mph
Cutter FC
6% usage · 27% whiff · .339 xwOBA · 83.9 mph
Slider SL
2% usage · 28% whiff · .311 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405060705/266/16/76/136/186/246/297/4
Four-Seam FastballSweeperSinker
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB29.3 .279 328
vs. RHB23.3 .324 971
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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