PITCHER MATCHUP

Sean Manaea vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sean Manaea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sean Manaea's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .288vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Sweeper 29%Sinker 16%Changeup 6%Cutter 6%Slider 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sean Manaea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MB Michael Busch LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.