PITCHER MATCHUP

Sean Manaea vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sean Manaea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sean Manaea's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 29%Sinker 15%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%Slider 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sean Manaea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 IH Ian Happ SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MB Michael Busch LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-24 game page →