PITCHER MATCHUP

Sean Manaea vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sean Manaea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sean Manaea's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .334Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Sweeper 29%Sinker 16%Cutter 6%Changeup 6%Slider 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sean Manaea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 579 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 557 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 601 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 617 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.