PITCHER MATCHUP

Sean Manaea vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sean Manaea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sean Manaea's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .334Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Sweeper 29%Sinker 16%Cutter 7%Changeup 6%Slider 1%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sean Manaea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JS Josh Smith LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 YP Yohendrick Piñango LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yohendrick Piñango
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.