PITCHER MATCHUP

Sean Manaea vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sean Manaea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sean Manaea's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .275vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Sweeper 29%Sinker 15%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%Slider 2%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sean Manaea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .372
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS George Springer RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 YP Yohendrick Piñango LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yohendrick Piñango
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-29 game page →