PITCHER MATCHUP

PJ Poulin vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against PJ Poulin's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

PJ Poulin's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .317vs RHH xwOBA .375Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Sweeper 31%Changeup 17%Sinker 16%Unknown 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against PJ Poulin, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (31% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (31% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (31% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (31% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NF Nick Fortes RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (31% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (31% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-19 game page →