PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .297vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 33%Sweeper 20%Four-Seam Fastball 16%Curveball 13%Cutter 10%Changeup 8%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MM Matt McLain RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JB JJ Bleday LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BD Blake Dunn RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blake Dunn
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DM Dane Myers RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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