PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .274Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 32%Sweeper 19%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 14%Cutter 10%Changeup 7%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →