PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .313vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 32%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sweeper 17%Curveball 15%Cutter 10%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 615 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.