PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .314vs RHH xwOBA .259Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 34%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 14%Sweeper 14%Cutter 10%Changeup 7%Slider 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.