PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .262Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 32%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sweeper 17%Curveball 14%Cutter 10%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-17 game page →