PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .314vs RHH xwOBA .259Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 34%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 14%Sweeper 14%Cutter 10%Changeup 7%Slider 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.