PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .263Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 33%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sweeper 15%Curveball 14%Cutter 10%Changeup 7%Slider 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 579 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 557 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 601 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 617 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.