PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .299vs RHH xwOBA .271Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 33%Sweeper 20%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 13%Cutter 10%Changeup 8%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 IH Ian Happ SH .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MB Michael Busch LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-23 game page →