PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .314vs RHH xwOBA .259Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 34%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 14%Sweeper 14%Cutter 10%Changeup 7%Slider 2%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JS Josh Smith LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Smith
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 YP Yohendrick Piñango LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yohendrick Piñango
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.