PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .314vs RHH xwOBA .259Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 34%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 14%Sweeper 14%Cutter 10%Changeup 7%Slider 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .385
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.