PITCHER MATCHUP

Nolan McLean vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nolan McLean's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nolan McLean's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .265Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 32%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sweeper 16%Curveball 15%Cutter 10%Changeup 7%Slider 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nolan McLean, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 470 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .391
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-29 game page →