PITCHER MATCHUP

Nick Martinez vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nick Martinez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nick Martinez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .315vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 23%Sinker 23%Cutter 21%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 8%Slider 7%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nick Martinez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-29 game page →