PITCHER MATCHUP

Nick Martinez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nick Martinez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nick Martinez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .314vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 23%Sinker 22%Cutter 21%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 10%Slider 7%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nick Martinez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .399
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-03 game page →