PITCHER MATCHUP

Nick Martinez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nick Martinez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nick Martinez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .318vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 23%Sinker 23%Cutter 21%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 9%Slider 7%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nick Martinez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .400
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.