PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .366
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TG Trent Grisham LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC José Caballero RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AW Austin Wells LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.