PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 18%Slider 11%Curveball 8%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 544 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Ben Rice LHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TG Trent Grisham LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AW Austin Wells LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Amed Rosario RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Amed Rosario
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-22 game page →