PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .362
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 564 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TG Trent Grisham LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC José Caballero RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AW Austin Wells LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.