PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 18%Slider 11%Curveball 8%Changeup 7%Cutter 4%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Matt McLain RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JB JJ Bleday LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BD Blake Dunn RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blake Dunn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-28 game page →