PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 581 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF TJ Friedl LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DM Dane Myers RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.