PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 618 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT Jose Trevino RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Trevino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.