PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW James Wood LHB .369
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .434 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dylan Crews RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BH Brady House RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.