PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 18%Slider 11%Curveball 8%Changeup 7%Cutter 4%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 JW James Wood LHB .367
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .428 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 DL Daylen Lile LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CA CJ Abrams LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CM Curtis Mead RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-03 game page →