PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JY Jacob Young RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DC Dylan Crews RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 BH Brady House RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT José Tena LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Tena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.