PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 585 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 VR Victor Robles RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.