PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 636 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.