PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Los Angeles Dodgers

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Los Angeles Dodgers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 FF Freddie Freeman LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddie Freeman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 643 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 KT Kyle Tucker LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Tucker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AP Andy Pages RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andy Pages
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Max Muncy LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MB Mookie Betts RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mookie Betts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TH Teoscar Hernández RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Teoscar Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TE Tommy Edman SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tommy Edman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 WS Will Smith RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Will Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AF Alex Freeland SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Freeland
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.