PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Los Angeles Dodgers

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Los Angeles Dodgers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 FF Freddie Freeman LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddie Freeman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 621 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 KT Kyle Tucker LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Tucker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Max Muncy LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Mookie Betts RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mookie Betts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 492 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TH Teoscar Hernández RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Teoscar Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TE Tommy Edman SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tommy Edman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AF Alex Freeland SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Freeland
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 WS Will Smith RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Will Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MR Miguel Rojas RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Rojas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.