PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Arizona Diamondbacks

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Arizona Diamondbacks's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 634 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 586 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 KM Ketel Marte SH .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ketel Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 TT Tim Tawa RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tim Tawa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RW Ryan Waldschmidt RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Waldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.