PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Arizona Diamondbacks

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Arizona Diamondbacks's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 658 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 KM Ketel Marte SH .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ketel Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TT Tim Tawa RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tim Tawa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RW Ryan Waldschmidt RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Waldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.