PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Arizona Diamondbacks

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .364vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 8%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Arizona Diamondbacks's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 KM Ketel Marte SH .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ketel Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 AD Adrian Del Castillo LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adrian Del Castillo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RW Ryan Waldschmidt RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Waldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JB Jorge Barrosa SH .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Barrosa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-27 game page →