PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AR Austin Riley RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LT Lane Thomas RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.