PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .366vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 18%Slider 11%Curveball 8%Changeup 7%Cutter 4%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-09 game page →