PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Keller vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Keller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Keller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sinker 19%Sweeper 17%Slider 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 7%Cutter 5%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Keller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 679 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 DS Dominic Smith LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.