PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Bratt vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Bratt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Bratt's arsenal

Throws LHPvs RHH xwOBA .342Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 38%SV 23%Slider 14%Sinker 10%Changeup 8%Curveball 5%Unknown 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Bratt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (23% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-05 game page →