PITCHER MATCHUP

Mitch Bratt vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mitch Bratt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mitch Bratt's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .279vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 48%SV 22%Changeup 10%Slider 9%Sinker 8%Curveball 4%Unknown 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mitch Bratt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.