RunsLeft › Pitchers › Mitch Bratt
Starting Pitcher · Arizona Diamondbacks

Mitch Bratt

LHP · Throws Left · Age 23Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
70.8%
70.8% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. CIN. Confidence high.
ERA
4.17
FIP
–
IP
36.2
W-L
1-2
WHIP
1.47
K%
15.7
BB%
13.8
GB%
–
K/9
6.1
HR/9
1.2
Drafted by the Texas Rangers in 2021 (round 5), he was acquired by the Arizona Diamondbacks via trade from the Texas Rangers in July 2025. He made his MLB debut on June 24, 2026.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Reds · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Reds current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .320

  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 589 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF TJ Friedl LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DM Dane Myers RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

44% of pitches · .352 xwOBA allowed · 59 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
1%4%4%5%4%5%8%6%8%2%7%16%13%5%3%1%4%1%1%0%2%2%0%1%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
–.698.349.000–.366.510.008.088–.698.345.414.358.349–.076.000.129–.698––––
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
–.027.015.000–.017.038.000.007–.046.054.053.019.010–.003.000.001–.017––––
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) has allowed .352 xwOBA over 59 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 517-pitch sample · 2026 season

Four-Seam Fastball FF
44% usage · 11% whiff · .352 xwOBA · 90.9 mph
SV SV
22% usage · 10% whiff · .252 xwOBA · 79.6 mph
Slider SL
11% usage · 26% whiff · .440 xwOBA · 86.6 mph
Changeup CH
10% usage · 11% whiff · .249 xwOBA · 84.7 mph
Sinker SI
8% usage · .213 xwOBA · 90.8 mph
Curveball CU
4% usage · .237 xwOBA
Unknown UN
1% usage
Whiff% Trend
last 7 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405060706/247/127/207/318/58/118/17
Four-Seam FastballSVSlider
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026 season
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB12.1 .283 33
vs. RHB18 .315 98
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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