PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Wacha vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Wacha's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Wacha's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Changeup 26%Cutter 14%Sinker 14%Slider 10%Curveball 9%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Wacha, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-20 game page →