RunsLeft › Pitchers › Michael Wacha
Starting Pitcher · Kansas City Royals

Michael Wacha

RHP · Throws Right · Age 35Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
50.4%
50.4% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. NYM. Confidence medium.
ERA
3.45
FIP
–
IP
114.2
W-L
5-6
WHIP
1.16
K%
19.6
BB%
6.7
GB%
–
K/9
7.1
HR/9
1.0
Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2012 (round 1), he was signed by the Kansas City Royals in free agency in December 2023. He made his MLB debut on May 30, 2013.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Mets · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Mets current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .334

  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BB Brett Baty LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Juan Soto LHB .396
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .453 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MV Mark Vientos RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mark Vientos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Luis Torrens RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FL Francisco Lindor SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

26% of pitches · .340 xwOBA allowed · 441 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
2%4%5%4%2%2%6%7%8%4%4%10%13%11%6%1%2%2%1%1%0%2%2%2%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.000.112.141.146.279.261.182.261.300.231.627.347.455.425.347.086.156.430.373.691.744.705.574.549.691
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.000.004.007.005.005.006.011.019.023.008.026.035.060.047.021.001.002.009.004.007.001.012.010.010.008
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) has allowed .340 xwOBA over 441 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 7,110-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
26% usage · 16% whiff · .340 xwOBA · 93.0 mph
Changeup CH
25% usage · 28% whiff · .251 xwOBA · 80.6 mph
Cutter FC
15% usage · 14% whiff · .359 xwOBA · 89.2 mph
Sinker SI
14% usage · 11% whiff · .347 xwOBA · 93.2 mph
Slider SL
11% usage · 27% whiff · .342 xwOBA · 85.0 mph
Curveball CU
9% usage · 26% whiff · .263 xwOBA · 76.1 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040505/255/316/56/116/166/226/277/4
Four-Seam FastballChangeupCutter
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB20.3 .306 983
vs. RHB17.6 .325 863
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

Live lines load in your browser.
Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

Today’s picks load in your browser.