PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Wacha vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Wacha's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Wacha's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Changeup 26%Cutter 15%Sinker 14%Slider 10%Curveball 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Wacha, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .395
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-15 game page →