PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .375vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EJ Edouard Julien LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edouard Julien
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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