PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 KK Kyle Karros RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Connor Norby RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.